Breaking down Trump’s big Iowa win

Donald Trump won nearly every voting bloc in the Iowa Republican caucuses, according to NBC News entrance poll results, but a few key groups in particular helped lift the former president to a massive victory Monday night.

Trump’s best showing came from caucusgoers who didn’t have a college degree (67%), those who identified as very conservative (61%), voters over 65 years old (58%) and white evangelicals (53%).

His showing among those groups was up from 2016, when he only received support from roughly two in 10 voters in each group. His support among white evangelicals alone when up 32 points, from 21% in 2016 to 53% in 2024.

Trump also won among caucus participants who said they valued a candidate who fights for people like them (82%) and those who made up their mind on which candidate they would support earlier than this month (66%). 

Just less than half (46%) Iowa Republican caucusgoers identified as being part of the Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement and three-quarters of them voted for him.

Two-thirds said they did not think that President Joe Biden legitimately won the 2020 election. And roughly 7 in 10 of those caucusgoers supported Trump on Monday.

Eight in 10 Iowa GOP caucus participants identified as Republicans and 54% of them voted for Trump. Another 16% identified as independents and Trump secured 42% of their vote (compared to only 22% in 2016).

The independents supporting Trump largely didn’t have college degrees (64%), identified as conservative (51%) and are over 45 years old (50%).

About two-thirds of Iowa Republican caucus participants said that Trump would be fit to be president if he were to be convicted of a crime

Among those who said Trump would be fit to be president if he was convicted of a crime, 72% voted for him Monday.

When asked which candidate quality mattered most in deciding who they would vote for, 4 in 10 Iowa GOP caucus voters said they wanted someone who shares their values. Another 32% said they valued a candidate who fights for people like them.

The economy was the issue that mattered most to Iowa Republican caucusgoers, followed closely by immigration. Trump secured 52% of economy voters and 64% of immigration voters.

When asked if there should be a federal law banning most or all abortions nationwide, 61% of Iowa GOP caucusgoers said they would favor a ban and 35% said they would oppose it. Trump won a majority (55%) of voters who favor an abortion ban.