Happening this Friday: It’s three days until the Iowa caucuses… Donald Trump complains that New York civil trial is “a fraud on me”… Ron DeSantis argues that 2024 will be all about Trump’s legal issues if the former president becomes GOP nominee, per NBC’s Jillian Frankel… Nikki Haley sets zero expectations in Iowa, NBC’s Natasha Korecki, Katherine Doyle, Garrett Haake and Matt Dixon report… And President Biden travels to Allentown, Pa., where he’ll talk about the economy — as he holds smaller events and makes more unscheduled stops.
But FIRST… All the focus on the race for second place in Iowa between Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley has overlooked what could be the biggest storyline on Monday — besides the sub-zero temperatures.
If the polls are correct, former President Donald Trump is on track to smash the Republican record for largest victory margin in the history of the Iowa caucuses.
The current record is held by Bob Dole, who defeated Pat Robertson by 13 points in the 1988 caucuses.
In 2000, George W. Bush won the Iowa caucuses by 11 points over Steve Forbes.
In 2008, Mike Huckabee carried Iowa by 9 percentage points over Mitt Romney.
And back in 2016, Ted Cruz defeated Trump by just 3 points.
But according to the polls over the last month, Trump has been leading his nearest competition by more than 30 points — so double or even triple Dole’s record winning margin from 1988.
(By the way, the all-time winning margin when you also include past Democratic Iowa caucuses? It’s Walter Mondale’s 32-point victory in 1984 — followed by Al Gore’s 29-point win in 2000.)
Now maybe the polls are wrong, and a friendly heads up that there’s still one more big Iowa poll set to be released.
And maybe the bone-chilling cold affects turnout.
But if not, the major storyline from Monday will be watching Trump’s margin.
Headline of the day
The number of the day is … 16
That’s how many locations were targeted in strikes Thursday by the U.S. and Britain against Houthi rebels in Yemen, NBC’s Courtney Kube and Tim Stelloh report.
In a statement, Biden said the strikes “are a clear message that the United States and our partners will not tolerate attacks on our personnel or allow hostile actors to imperil freedom of navigation.”
Early on Friday, the Houthis said that the strikes killed five militants and injured six others.
Lawmakers reacted quickly to the news of the strikes, with several Democratic members of Congress blasting Biden for agreeing to the strikes without authorization from Congress.
“The President needs to come to Congress before launching a strike against the Houthis in Yemen and involving us in another middle east conflict,” Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., posted on social media Thursday night. Others, including Reps. Val Hoyle, D-Ore., Rashida Tlaib, D-Mich., and Mark Pocan, D-Wis., also criticized the president for initiating strikes with Congress’ approval.
Eyes on November: Haley navigates her rise ahead of first contest
With just a few days to go until the Iowa caucuses, former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley got some good news on Thursday when a new poll from Suffolk University showed her rising to second place in the Hawkeye State, though still trailing former President Donald Trump by more than 30 points.
For Haley, the Iowa caucuses are about not setting any expectations, NBC’s Natasha Korecki, Katherine Doyle, Garrett Haake and Matt Dixon report. She has consistently said she wants a “strong” showing in Iowa and the other early states, but has not defined what that would look like.
“We don’t know what strong looks like until we see the results, right?” Haley told NBC News on Thursday. “But I think it’s important that if we show that we’re strong in Iowa, that gives us momentum going into New Hampshire. That’s what I’m focused on for Monday.”
Haley has been closing in on Trump in New Hampshire, and she could get a boost from former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s supporters now that he’s out of the race. On Thursday, Haley dismissed Christie’s comments caught on a hot mic that she is “going to get smoked” and “not up to this,” telling NBC’s Haake and Olympia Sonnier: “We know that our goal is not to worry about petty things that others say. It’s more about, what do we need to do to get that next vote?”
Meanwhile, the battle between Haley and Trump is heating up on the New Hampshire airwaves ahead of the Jan. 23 primary. SFA Fund Inc., a super PAC backing Haley, launched a new ad more aggressively targeting Trump, with a narrator saying, “One temper tantrum after another, his entire campaign based on revenge.”
And the Trump campaign launched a new ad targeting Haley over Social Security, featuring her comments that she supports raising the retirement age to qualify for benefits.
In other campaign news …
Loosening up: Biden’s advisers have encouraged him to loosen up to assuage concerns about his age, NBC’s Monica Alba and Mike Memoli report. “That means more informal remarks, unannounced stops at diners and appearances in social media posts and on podcasts, as well as fewer ties and Rose Garden ceremonies,” they write.
Abortion politics: The Associated Press reports that abortion has not been a top issue ahead of the GOP caucuses in Iowa, which is unusual for a state with so many evangelical voters. But its absence shows that GOP candidates and voters are concerned the issue could be problematic for Republicans in 2024.
Impeachment politics: GOP candidates largely are not bringing up the House GOP’s impeachment inquiry into Biden on the campaign trail, NBC’s Jake Traylor reports.
Trump trial: Trump spoke in a New York court on Thursday, addressing the judge after closing arguments in his civil fraud trial and calling the case “a fraud on me,” per NBC’s Adam Reiss and Dareh Gregorian. The judge said he hopes to rule in the case by Jan. 31.
Trump talk: An NBC News analysis of Trump’s social media posts found that the former president focused more of his posts on his legal challenges rather than his presidential campaign, and that his attacks on the judicial system would spike around key rulings, per NBC’s Gregorian and Jasmine Cui.
Taking on Trump: The Democratic group American Bridge 21st Century is planning a $140 million ad campaign featuring voter testimonials, “aimed at reminding women and working-class voters why they voted against Trump in 2020,” per the Washington Post.
Candidate wanted: No Labels, a group considering mounting a third-party presidential campaign if the election comes down to Biden vs. Trump again, is actively engaging former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie about joining the group’s ticket, NBC’s Vaughn Hillyard and Shaquille Brewster report. Meanwhile, former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan is stepping away from his role with the group, Hillyard reports.
A growing electorate: The Asian American eligible voting population grew by 15% since the last presidential election cycle, NBC’s Kimmy Yam reports, compared to just a 3% growth rate among all eligible voters.
House battle through Colorado: North Carolina GOP Rep. Richard Hudson, the chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, told reporters Thursday that Colorado GOP Rep. Lauren Boebert’s decision to seek re-election in a different, more Republican district gives Republicans “a better shot” at retaining her seat.
Plan your vote: NBC News’ new interactive tool has all of the information you need to vote, wherever you live.
ICYMI: What ELSE is happening in the world
In federal court Thursday, Hunter Biden pleaded not guilty to nine-tax related charges.
The Pentagon inspector general said Thursday that it plans to examine how the Defense Department handled Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s recent hospitalizations due to prostate cancer and a subsequent infection.
Republican and Democratic leaders in Congress are working on a $70 billion deal that would expand the child tax credit and give tax breaks to businesses through 2025, NBC’s Sahil Kapur, Kate Santaliz and Scott Wong report.
